¿Vivimos en una burbuja (financiera)?

Vuelvo a la escritura unos meses después, esta vez en español. Una pandemia, tipos de interés bajos y una cantidad de deuda enorme están en el día a día de muchos inversores. La vuelta de la inflación suena con fuerza en muchos analistas y esta quizás sea una de las mejores armas que tienen los bancos centrales para que el efecto en los montos de deuda que tienen muchos actores en la sociedad (y los propios BC) vayan disminuyendo. Otra forma que veo complicada es subir tipos y que medio occidente quiebre. Quizás sea un juego de largo plazo: hacer ruido con la inflación, dejar tipos bajos durante mucho más tiempo e ir viendo si subidas poco a poco (comenzando en 2022/2023) no hacen quebrar muchas inversiones.

Me gustó el tuit este:

En una entrevista de febrero de este año entre Howard Marks y Joel Greenblatt se preguntaban si estamos en una burbuja financiera. Para el bueno de Howard vivimos en tiempos optimistas, debido a las acciones de la Fed y el Tesoro americano debido al 2020 tan débil que hubo. En mi opinión, vivimos en tiempos optimistas desde hace ya bastantes años. Concretamente desde que se lanzó el QEinfinity. Hay que recordar que entre el 14 de febrero del 2020 y el 20 de marzo el S&P 500 perdió un 31,81% de su valor. Se produjo la mayor caída en el menor tiempo del que se tenían registros. El final lo conocemos todos: se produjo un rebote y el S&P 500 terminó el año en positivo. En parte debido a que las vacunas empezaban a aflorar su existencia y que en pocos meses los países desarrollados iban a tener acceso a ella y terminar así con la pesadilla.

Que vivimos en tiempos con muchos extremos no es ninguna novedad. Aquí una serie de sucesos en los últimos meses que explican muy bien lo complicado de hacer previsiones y por tanto de poder invertir con unas hipótesis correctas. Sacado del memo de Howard, 2020 in review.

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Otro gráfico interesante es el S&P 500 PE Ratio. Para el que no lo sepa, el PE Ratio o ratio PER en español. No es otra cosa que una división entre el precio y el beneficio por acción. La gráfica de abajo nos muestra el número actual al que cotiza el S&P 500.

¿Innovaciones financieras? La moda de las SPACs, la facilidad para empresas que no son rentables de salir a bolsa y el fenómeno de GameStop que puso un poco más de irracionalidad en el mercado. ¿Más irracionalidad en el mercado?

Howard comenta que las valoraciones relativas son razonables teniendo en cuenta las tasas de interés. Las valoraciones son mayores mientras más bajo sea el tipo de interés. Aquí, en los tipos de interés, esta vez si es diferente. ¿Cuántos de nosotros no hemos visto un 10% de tipos de interes? ¿Cuántos amigos se han comprado una casa con tipo fijo en los últimos años? La primera hipoteca de mis padres fue cercana al 15%, logicamente, el valor de los inmubles era muchísimo menor hacer 40 años que a día de hoy. La hipoteca de mi hermana es 1,75% fijo a 30 años. Como he dicho antes, esto sí es diferente. El coste del dinero a bajado porque así lo han querido los bancos centrales que tienen el poder para hacerlo.

Este coste del capital tiene un efecto sobre la valoración de todo tipos de activos, bien sean reales o financieros. Trato de hacer un ejemplo sencillo. Si yo invierto hoy 1.000 euros en un activo (una carretera con flujos estables), cuyo valor he obtenido descontando los flujos futuros que me van a pertenecer al 3%. De esos 1.000 euros me han prestado un 75%, y me he endeudado a un margen del 1,5% + EURIBOR (hoy en día muy bajo). El EURIBOR va a ir cambiando, a día de hoy los valores futuros serán muy bajos pero nada me garantiza que en 4 años el euribor no sea alto y mi margen + EURIBOR sea tan alto que mi inversión pase de ser positiva a negativa.

El descontar a día de hoy flujos futuros a una tasa equivocada o irreal va a provocar que en el futuro muchas inversiones no sean rentables y los inversores pierndan mucho dinero. Logicamente, en mi ejemplo anterior, tiene muchas matizaciones debido a que posiblemente mi inversión esté cubierto el riesgo inflación debido a que las tarifas de mi activo irán aumentando si la inflación aumenta. Sí, es correcto, pero a nivel de ejemplo creo que queda claro que mi ejercicio es teórico y que lo que trato de decir es que ser muy optimista en las hipótesis que tomamos va a llevar a desastres financieros.

Notes from Anthony Deden interview by Grant Williams

To be honest, I did not know Anthony Deden, he is the founder of Edelweiss Holdings, a private investment holding company with long-term participation in the production, chemistry and technology of food, aquaculture, materials, forestry, resources and various industrial and engineering endeavours.

Recently I watched an amazing interview with Grant Williams (Real Vision) and I was fascinated by all the wisdom Anthony shared.

I started to try to find more information about him and his holding but he only has a corporate presentation on his website. His portfolio (as at 31 Dec 2017) it was formed by:

  • Listed equity participation (28)—58.4%
  • Unlisted investments (1)—0.8%
  • Gold reserves—35%
  • Cash—5.8%

The return record is quite spectacular, Edelweiss holding vs MSCI World Index.

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Also, I could find some equities he owned, such as Emmi (Magallanes Value is a huge fan of this company also), Bic and TFF Group.

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Some notes about the interview:

  • In his 30s he started to help his mentor to manage a family wealth.
  • He discovered Graham and Dobb books because of some Swiss friends in NY banks.
  • He was also interested in understanding what is interest rate and money so he started to read Austrians and classical liberals.
  • Quantification is not as necessary as people believed. His ideas are to focus on understanding the whole business (suppliers, products, management) that to follow the daily price of the equity.
  • He changed his view about investment management (one policy for the 10/12 families he had). Investment is protecting, enhancing and deploying the capital permanently in a time horizon.
  • He talked with the families he managed and ask for a time horizon and one investment policy for everyone. They finished the old investment management agreement and set up a new one.
  • In 1995, 1996 and 1997 monetary policy became the driver of investing. In that period, prices of securities were going up, independently of economic
    results or economic activity. In 1998 he thought it was an error in the way he knows the reality, it was wrong him or others. He started a period of soul-searching because he thought he was too old-fashioned and the world changed. So, you need to rethink the basic assumptions of what is real and what is not.
  • He invests in companies that were there and will be there in the future. In the first QE he though the rules changed.
  • Owners vs investors. Owner businesses are far more interested in this survival of the company,
    also interesting in suppliers, employees, products, etc. An investor is someone that wants to sell higher that he bought. The wealth creation is different from both of them.
  • The book Antifragile, in his opinion, is one of the most extraordinary books he’s read.
  • “Wealth is the compounding of earnings”.
  • “What can go wrong is more important than what can go right because over time you are in a marginally good business will profit, will do well.”
  • My favourite part of the interview is around time 1:01:41, scarcity is the most important law in economics in that no one can have all of they want. Scarcity is a natural law, it’s just part of life there is scarcity in material goods in resources in everywhere you look at the scarcity in real savings in terms of money other than perhaps credits is being created. Scarcity is also found in skill sets, there is also scarcity among the kind of characteristics in character in men that you and I would consider to be attractive.
  • The second word in his principles: permanent, he sometimes thinks to call it endurance, it’s the idea of creating a framework not only within your collection of investments but by extension within each investment nature, an investment that is designed to endure rather than merely grow.
  • The third component is the idea of independence, we are quite dependent (key suppliers for example) dependence makes a system more fragile, so the more independent an organism is from external weaknesses the more likely is to set out its endurance or this strength. Bear in mind that independence is costly.
  • Freedom doesn’t come free, you know you have to work.
  • He called savings instead of wealth. Savings = that which is left over production – consumption.
  • In today’s world he made 1 or 2 investment decision a year, in the past, 20 years ago he made 20/25 a year.
  • It is important to work with people that are like-minded with you.
  • His shareholder turnover it is much lower than his portfolio turnover. This is a great way to understand that his investors understand what he does and how he manages their money.
  • His position in gold started in 1998, he owned gold bullion for many years, he thought it was mispriced. He owned equities but started to buy the physical metal. Also, gold provides him with the three component: scarcity, permanence and independence from the financial system.
  • Two or three questions he oftentimes made:
    • If I owned this whole company would I want the same people to run it?
    • Would I want to own the entire company? If not, why I want to own a little bit.
    • Is this business likely to be around 20 years from now?

Guiding principles:

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Valuespaña 2018 – Videos

Last 15 and 16 of March took place Valuespaña 2018, where a great number of fund managers present an investment idea.

Here is the list of the fund managers: Iván Martín (Magallanes Value Investors), Marc Saint John Webb (Quaero Capital), Oliver Kelton (Odey), Richard Cook (Cook and Bynum), Stuart Mitchell (S.W. Mitchell Capital), Simon Caufield, Francisco López (A&G), Sid Choraria (Amiral Gestion), Fredrik Bjelland (Skagen Funds), Vinod Nair (Altavista), Bob Robotti (Robotti), Andrew Hollingworth (HollAndadvisors), Lorenzo Serratosa, Emilia Vieira, Evan Vanderveer, Beltrán de la Lastra (Bestinver), Andrés Allende (Cobas Asset Management) and Antonio López.

Below all the ideas that these fund managers share with us. Thanks to Rankia to upload all these videos.

Sid Choraria, Amiral Gestion – Nesco

Fredrik Bjelland, Skagen Funds – Aeroflot

Andrew Hollingworth , Holland Advisors – Marshmallow Investing

 

Iván Martín, Magallanes Value Investors – Savencia

 

 

Simon Caufield, Sensible Investors – Ryanair and Sportdirect.com

 

Emilia Vieira, Casa de Investimentos – Allergan

 

Evan Vanderveer, Vanshap Capital – Hoteles City Express

 

Francisco López, LIFT Investment Advisors. Talgo

 

 

Lorenzo Serratosa, Kau Markets –

 

 

Richard Cook, Cook & Bynum – Liberty Latin America

 

Marc Saint John Webb, Quaero Capital – Sarantis

Robert Robotti, Robotti & Co – Stolt-Nielsen

Sunday charts

If you do not know I have a Twitter account, @saetacapital, that you can follow. Every Sunday I tweet around 10 charts that I found during the previous week.

This is the thread for today:

Enjoy it!